Bailout or Failure?

It is Wednesday evening and so far, there is no bailout program for the auto industry. Although a bailout is not the greatest idea, compared to certain other options, it is by far the lesser of two evils when considering the consequences of the failure of at least two of the three American auto makers.

Without an immediate bailout, GM and Chrysler will no doubt file for bankruptcy in the next sixty days. Executives of the companies have said bankruptcy would be q disaster because customers would not buy their cars. That does not make complete sense, though. If the manufacturers maintained their warranty programs throughout bankruptcy, and dealer service departments continued to operate, it seems people would buy the vehicles. The bigger problem of revenue generation is the lack of the right vehicles for the market, not a bankruptcy.

As earlier written on this blog, it still seems that bankruptcy of GM, with post petition financing guaranteed by the government; a line of credit for Ford guaranteed by the government; and the breakup of Chrysler makes the most sense.

If in bankruptcy, GM can quickly deal with the problems of high labor costs, high legacy costs, too many dealers and debt overload. They can shed models and factories and dealers, and renegotiate their debt, and in two years exit bankruptcy as a smoothly operating company with the beginning of a competitive model lineup. Many thousand dealers will be out of business, with great dislocation to customers and employees – unfortunately that is the consequence of the Big 3’s poor management through the years.

Although Ford is stronger than GM, they also may need to go through a Chapter 11 proceeding in order to achieve all their goals in the time available. Union reaction will have great importance in determining the issue.

The next few days will decide the fate of the companies, their employees, their customers and the many other stakeholders. Too bad I will not be the “Car Czar.”

GM and Bankruptcy

Executives of General Motors Corporation are saying GM cannot survive a bankruptcy, and needs government money to continue operation.

The second part of their statement is certainly true. In the latest report, GM is asking for $4 billion to keep operating through December and another $4 billion for January. With more to come.

The first part of the statement, about not surviving a bankruptcy, seems wrong. There are many, many cases of companies going into bankruptcy, emerging and regaining successful operations. Two come to mind – the Dana Corporation, and automotive and truck parts and accessories manufacturer; and Harnischfeger Corporation, a mining and heavy equipment manufacturer. Both now are successful, generally thriving companies.

Think about the airlines – most have been, are in, or are going into bankruptcy. People still fly on them. Usually there is an interruption for a few days, and then service is as normal as airline service is.

Then there are the the retailers. Kmart and Winn Dixie stores have been through bankruptcy, along with many others. Each is better off after the event than before. Customers continue to do business with them.

GM executives say people will not buy GM vehicles if the company is in bankruptcy. What is new about people not buying GM cars? People are not buying GM cars now because they are the wrong ones, and of lower than desirable quality.

Bankruptcy will give GM the tools to deal with the killer problems they face as they go forward. It will allow reworking legacy costs, labor costs and an unwieldy dealer organization. Yes, enormous problems are involved in restructuring those items. They can be overcome.

Car buyers would no doubt rather buy cars from a revitalized, restructured GM that from the one that exists now, propped up by massive infusions of our (taxpayers’) money.

Let the government infuse the money into GM after bankruptcy. Everyone except some GM executives will get more bang for the buck.